2024 Recession Prediction. With inflation falling, unemployment low and the federal reserve signaling it could soon begin cutting interest rates, forecasters are becoming increasingly optimistic that the. By the time the recession begins, however, fed officials will be confident they are on the right path and will likely hold interest rates level through most of 2024.
The international monetary fund (imf) forecasts a slight decline in global growth to 2.9% in 2024, down from 3% in 2023. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2024, 45% by the second half of 2024 and 60% by the first half of 2025.